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DONATE TODAY >CDC fears possibility of 1.4 MILLION Ebola cases by January
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A report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has revealed a terrifying new estimate on just how damaging the Ebola epidemic in West Africa may become.
Highlights
Catholic Online (https://www.catholic.org)
9/23/2014 (1 decade ago)
Published in Africa
Keywords: Ebola, Health, Africa, International, Nigeria, Liberia, World Health Organization
LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - Based on computer models, the CDC came up with worst-case and best-case scenarios for Liberia and Sierra Leone.
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Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 cases of Ebola by September 30, and 1.4 million cases by January 20 if the disease continues to spread at its current rate without any effective methods t contain it. This projection also takes into account the many cases that go undetected, and estimate that there may actually be 2.5 times as many Ebola cases as reported.
Figures for Guinea, another West African nation that has been hard hit by the outbreak, were not presented, because the amount of Ebola cases there have gone up and down unreliably.
The best-case scenario for West Africa, which assumes that the dead are all buried safely and that 70% of all infected patients are treated without retransmitting the disease, is that the epidemic in both countries could be ended by January 20.
"My gut feeling is, the actions we're taking now are going to make that worst-case scenario not come to pass," said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, the director of the CDC. "But it's important to understand that it could happen."
The figures outlined in the CDC report are based on outbreak data from August. Dr. Friedan said that the situation does appear to have improved since then.
Currently the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported that there have been 5,843 cases of Ebola, and the death toll stands at 2,803.
The WHO has published its own estimates about the future of the outbreak, and predicts there will be more than 20,000 cases by early November. The WHO's figures are more conservative than the projections from the CDC, but the WHO has admitted that with many cases unreported, the three most affected countries-Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea-could soon report thousands of cases and deaths per week.
The report from the WHO also reveals that the organization does see the possibility that the disease is not stopped, and instead becomes endemic in West Africa.
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